FG Unveils 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, Warns of Climate Risks to Aviation, Food Security

The Federal Government has unveiled the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), reaffirming its commitment to science-based planning, early warning systems and climate resilience as critical pillars for national development, aviation safety and food security.

The SCP was publicly presented on Monday at the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) Conference Centre, Abuja, by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), with the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, delivering the keynote address. The presentation also featured the release of the 2025 State of the Climate in Nigeria.

Speaking at the event, Keyamo described the annual SCP presentation as an important national exercise that has steadily translated climate science into practical benefits for government, businesses and citizens.

He said NiMet’s early warning products had continued to attract commendations from both public and private sector stakeholders for improving crop yields, supporting disaster risk reduction and strengthening socio-economic development.

The minister noted that climate variability and climate change have become defining realities of modern life, with direct implications for aviation safety, economic planning, national security, infrastructure development and the overall wellbeing of Nigerians.

According to him, the growing frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, severe thunderstorms and windstorms underscores the urgent need to place climate data and early warning systems at the heart of national planning.

Keyamo said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, places strong emphasis on economic stability, food security, infrastructure resilience and climate adaptation, stressing that timely and accurate weather and climate information is no longer optional but a strategic enabler of good governance.

He added that the level of government representation at the event reflected a renewed resolve to deploy climate science as a tool for sustainable development.

He explained that the SCP is directly aligned with the priorities of the present administration, describing it as “science for action” that translates complex climate signals into clear, actionable guidance for decision-makers across all sectors of the economy.

As minister in charge of meteorology, he said safe, efficient and sustainable aviation cannot exist without reliable meteorological input, noting that climate data remains central to building an aviation industry capable of supporting Nigeria’s growing population and economic ambitions.

Keyamo also traced the scientific foundations of meteorology in Nigeria to 1886, when the first weather observing station was established, noting that over the past 140 years, the discipline has evolved into a robust national service anchored by NiMet.

He commended the Agency for remaining a cornerstone of Nigeria’s safety and resilience architecture, supporting sectors ranging from aviation and agriculture to water resources, health, energy and disaster risk management.

Providing insights into the 2026 SCP, the minister said the forecast was developed in line with global best practices, combining long-term climatological data with key global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

He disclosed that indicators point to a predominantly neutral ENSO phase in 2026, with important implications for rainfall distribution, temperature patterns and sector-specific risks across the country.

According to the SCP highlights, early rainfall onset is expected in several southern and central states, including Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa and Oyo, as well as parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba, while a late onset is anticipated in Borno State.

Rainfall cessation is projected to be earlier than normal in parts of the South-West, South-South and North-Central, with delayed cessation expected in states such as Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue and Kaduna.

The forecast also indicates a longer-than-normal rainy season in states including Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba, while parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger are expected to experience a shorter rainy season.

Annual rainfall is projected to be near the long-term average across most of the country, with above-normal rainfall expected in states such as Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom and the Federal Capital Territory, and below-normal rainfall in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun.

The SCP further predicts severe and moderate dry spells during the March–May and June–July–August periods in several states, as well as a prolonged and intense Little Dry Season, commonly known as the August break, particularly over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo.

Daytime and nighttime temperatures are also expected to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of Nigeria during the early months of 2026.

Keyamo cautioned farmers and other rainfall-dependent stakeholders against mistaking early rains for the formal onset of the rainy season, urging them to rely on NiMet’s predicted onset dates and advisory services. He stressed that development efforts not informed by credible climate knowledge are vulnerable, costly and ultimately unsustainable.

In his remarks, the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, said the Agency remains committed to providing authoritative, science-based weather and climate information to support informed decision-making in Nigeria’s rapidly changing climate.

He noted that increasing climate variability and extreme weather events pose serious threats to lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economic growth, making reliable climate services indispensable.

Anosike disclosed that NiMet has become proactive in adopting emerging technologies, including the integration of Artificial Intelligence into forecasting operations, to enhance accuracy and service delivery.

He highlighted the Agency’s over-century-long history of meteorological service and acknowledged the foundational role played by the pioneer Director-General, Chief Lihwu Eugene Akeh, in establishing NiMet as a government agency.

The NiMet chief commended the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, for its consistent support, and called for stronger partnerships with state governments and other stakeholders to further downscale the SCP to local communities, particularly farmers.

He said efforts were ongoing to fast-track digital advisory services in collaboration with local and international partners, adding that expanded cooperation would help build a more climate-resilient Nigerian economy.

Both speakers called on ministries, departments and agencies, state governments, academia, the private sector, development partners and the media to support the dissemination and practical application of the 2026 SCP.

They reaffirmed the government’s commitment to empowering NiMet as a centre of excellence in weather and climate services and a trusted provider of scientific guidance for national development.