Africa Records Strong Passenger Growth as Air Cargo Recovery Slows – IATA

Africa’s aviation industry is showing signs of stronger passenger growth, but the continent’s air cargo market continues to lag behind the global recovery, highlighting a widening gap between the movement of people and the movement of goods by air.

The latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show that African airlines recorded 5.2 per cent year-on-year growth in passenger demand in July 2026, significantly outperforming the global aviation market, where total demand increased by just 0.2 per cent.

The stronger performance places Africa among the fastest-growing passenger markets globally and reinforces expectations that the continent could become an increasingly important source of aviation growth as connectivity improves and demand for regional and international travel expands.

However, the picture is considerably less encouraging in air freight.

African airlines recorded just 1.1 per cent growth in cargo demand during the same month, compared with global growth of 3.9 per cent. More troubling for carriers was the fact that cargo capacity increased by 4.1 per cent, nearly four times faster than demand.

The result was weaker utilisation of aircraft capacity and a decline in Africa’s cargo load factor to 45.8 per cent.

The contrasting figures suggest that while African aviation is attracting more passengers, the continent is yet to fully capitalise on the expansion of global trade and the growing international demand for air freight.

According to IATA, African airlines increased passenger demand by 5.2 per cent in July compared with the same month in 2025.

Only Latin America and the Caribbean, with 6.1 per cent growth, performed better among the major regions.

Europe recorded 2.1 per cent growth, while Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 1.0 per cent increase. North American carriers experienced a 1.2 per cent decline, while Middle Eastern airlines suffered a 10 per cent fall.

Africa’s performance becomes even more significant when international traffic is considered.

International passenger demand for African airlines rose 6.4 per cent year-on-year, at a time when global international demand fell by 0.1 per cent.

The increase points to strengthening demand for international travel involving African markets and suggests opportunities for carriers seeking to expand regional and long-haul networks.

But the growth came with an important qualification: African airlines added seats faster than passengers.

Overall capacity increased by 7.3 per cent, while international capacity jumped 9.0 per cent.

As a consequence, Africa’s overall passenger load factor fell by 1.5 percentage points to 75.1 per cent, while the international load factor dropped 1.8 percentage points to 74.1 per cent. That international figure was the lowest among the major regions tracked by IATA.

North American airlines recorded an international load factor of 88.2 per cent, European carriers 87.1 per cent, Asia-Pacific 84.5 per cent, Latin America and the Caribbean 85.7 per cent, and Middle Eastern carriers 80.9 per cent.

The gap demonstrates that Africa’s airlines still have substantial room to improve the commercial utilisation of their international networks.

The strong July passenger growth also draws attention to the paradox at the heart of African aviation.

The continent has a population of about 1.5 billion people and represents roughly 18 per cent of the world’s population, yet its share of global aviation activity remains disproportionately small.

IATA’s figures show that Africa accounted for only 2.2 per cent of global industry passenger traffic, measured in RPKs, in 2025.

Asia-Pacific accounted for 34.4 per cent, Europe 26.7 per cent and North America 21.8 per cent.

The low share reflects longstanding challenges, including limited intra-African connectivity, high operating costs, infrastructure deficiencies, fragmented markets, regulatory barriers and the financial difficulties confronting several African airlines.

Yet the July passenger figures suggest that demand itself may not be the primary problem.

The challenge is increasingly how airlines can convert rising demand into sustainable and profitable traffic.

Rapid capacity expansion without a corresponding increase in passengers could weaken yields and put additional pressure on airlines already operating in a difficult cost environment.

While passenger aviation is gaining momentum, Africa’s air cargo industry remains one of the weakest performers globally.

IATA said African airlines increased cargo demand by only 1.1 per cent in July, compared with 3.9 per cent globally.

International cargo demand worldwide increased by 4.7 per cent.

Africa’s performance was also significantly below North America, where cargo demand rose 4.8 per cent; Europe, 4.4 per cent; and Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean, 4.1 per cent each. Middle Eastern carriers recorded 1.7 per cent growth.

The imbalance becomes clearer when capacity is considered. African airlines increased available cargo tonne-kilometres by 4.1 per cent, compared with demand growth of just 1.1 per cent.

That pushed the cargo load factor down by 1.4 percentage points to 45.8 per cent. For airlines, the development is significant because empty or underutilised cargo capacity can quickly undermine the economics of freight operations.

The continent also has only a small share of the global air cargo market, accounting for 2.1 per cent of global CTKs in 2025.

Perhaps the most worrying element of the cargo figures is the performance of the Africa-Asia trade corridor.

Cargo traffic between Africa and Asia declined by 14.7 per cent year-on-year in July, extending the contraction into a second consecutive month.

The decline stands in sharp contrast to some of the world’s strongest cargo corridors.

Asia-North America cargo traffic increased by 9.2 per cent in July, marking its sixth consecutive month of growth.

Europe-Asia traffic grew by 3.1 per cent, extending its expansion streak to 41 months, while cargo demand within Asia increased by 6.1 per cent.

The Africa-Asia weakness is particularly important because Asian economies remain major centres of manufacturing, production and consumer markets.

A sustained contraction in the corridor could limit African exporters’ ability to take advantage of expanding Asian demand and could also constrain the continent’s integration into global supply chains.

For African economies seeking to diversify exports beyond traditional commodities, reliable and competitively priced air cargo connectivity will be increasingly important.

Despite regional disparities, the global cargo market continued to expand in July. IATA reported that global trade increased by 7.5 per cent year-on-year, while export orders reached their highest level in three months.

Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 52.7, remaining above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

IATA’s Senior Vice-President, Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, said the outlook remained broadly positive.

She noted that cargo demand increased 3.9 per cent year-on-year in July and that airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America accounted for more than 90 per cent of the overall increase.

She also pointed to a rising market share for dedicated freighters as belly-hold cargo traffic declined. However, the global recovery faces significant risks.

Jet fuel prices rose 12.2 per cent month-on-month in July and were 56.9 per cent higher than a year earlier.

For African airlines, the impact of higher fuel prices can be particularly severe because carriers already contend with high operating costs, limited economies of scale, foreign-exchange challenges and infrastructure constraints.

The July figures reveal that Africa’s aviation challenge is becoming more sophisticated.

For years, the focus has been on increasing connectivity, opening routes and acquiring additional aircraft. But IATA’s latest data suggest that capacity growth alone will not guarantee a stronger aviation industry.

On the passenger side, African airlines are attracting more travellers, with demand growing at more than five times the global rate. But capacity is increasing even faster.

In cargo, the imbalance is more pronounced, with capacity growing almost four times as quickly as demand and the key Africa-Asia corridor contracting sharply.

The implication is that African carriers must become more strategic about where and how they deploy capacity.

Airlines will need to strengthen route economics, improve connectivity through viable hubs, stimulate intra-African traffic and build stronger links with major international markets.

The same applies to air freight. Greater integration with manufacturing, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, e-commerce and other time-sensitive sectors could help African airlines capture more of the continent’s trade potential.

Despite the challenges, the latest figures provide reasons for optimism.

Africa remains one of the world’s least-served major aviation markets relative to its population, meaning that even modest improvements in connectivity and affordability could unlock substantial additional demand.

The 5.2 per cent passenger demand growth and 6.4 per cent international growth recorded in July demonstrate that the appetite for air travel exists.

The weakness in cargo, meanwhile, highlights an area requiring greater attention.

Africa’s small share of global passenger and cargo traffic is not simply a reflection of limited demand. It also reflects infrastructure gaps, high costs, fragmented markets and the continent’s limited integration into global aviation and logistics networks.

The immediate task for African airlines is therefore to ensure that capacity expansion follows genuine demand rather than running ahead of it.

For policymakers, the priority will be to create an operating environment capable of making air transport more affordable, reliable and commercially viable.

If those conditions improve, Africa could translate its enormous demographic and economic potential into a much larger share of global aviation.

For now, however, the July IATA figures tell a clear story: Africa’s passengers are driving a strong aviation recovery, but its cargo sector is struggling to keep pace with the rest of the world. 

The ability to close that gap could determine how effectively the continent converts its aviation potential into sustained economic growth.